Headline matches Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen (Bundesliga, 19:30)Lean: Dortmund win, goals likely. Dortmund are unbeaten and at home; models put them around 72–78%. Market is about 1.30–1.36, draw about 5.50, Bremen about 7.00–9.00. Over 2.5 is about 1.40.Estimated probabilities: Dortmund ~74%, draw ~15%, Bremen ~11%. Over 2.5 ~60–65%.Minimum odds for value: Dortmund ≥ 1.40;…