Headline matches

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen (Bundesliga, 19:30)
Lean: Dortmund win, goals likely. Dortmund are unbeaten and at home; models put them around 72–78%. Market is about 1.30–1.36, draw about 5.50, Bremen about 7.00–9.00. Over 2.5 is about 1.40.
Estimated probabilities: Dortmund ~74%, draw ~15%, Bremen ~11%. Over 2.5 ~60–65%.
Minimum odds for value: Dortmund ≥ 1.40; Over 2.5 ≥ 1.65; BTTS Yes ≥ 1.75.
At 1.30–1.36 there is no value on Dortmund. Over 2.5 at 1.40 is also short of 1.65. Skip the short favourite.

West Ham vs QPR (Championship, 20:00)
Lean: West Ham, but not at the price. Hammers are scoring freely at home (19 goals in a six-game unbeaten run). Market is about 1.46–1.54, draw about 4.30–4.90, QPR about 5.00–6.30. Over 2.5 about 1.50–1.57.
Estimated probabilities: West Ham ~58–62% (not the 74% some models print — QPR are organised away), draw ~22%, QPR ~18%. Over 2.5 ~55%.
Minimum odds for value: West Ham ≥ 1.70; Over 2.5 ≥ 1.85; draw ≥ 4.50.
West Ham at 1.50 is not value. Draw only if you can get 4.70+.

Málaga vs Espanyol (La Liga, 20:00)
Lean: draw or either side by one goal. Both sides project around 1.1 goals. Market is roughly Málaga 2.60–2.75, draw 3.10–3.40, Espanyol 2.60–2.80.
Estimated probabilities: Málaga ~34%, draw ~30%, Espanyol ~36%. Under 2.5 ~55–58%.
Minimum odds for value: either side ≥ 2.80; draw ≥ 3.40; Under 2.5 ≥ 1.80.
Closest look is Under 2.5 if it stays around 1.85+, or the draw only above 3.40. Straight 1X2 is a coin-flip.

Lens vs Lyon (Ligue 1, 19:45)
Lean: close, both teams to score more than a winner. Lyon have the better defensive numbers; Lens have home corners and set-piece volume. Market about Lens 2.40–2.50, draw 3.80, Lyon 2.65–2.75. BTTS Yes about 1.45.
Estimated probabilities: Lens ~38%, draw ~27%, Lyon ~35%. BTTS ~62–65%. Over 2.5 ~50–55%.
Minimum odds for value: Lens ≥ 2.65; Lyon ≥ 2.90; BTTS Yes ≥ 1.60; Over 2.5 ≥ 1.90.
BTTS at 1.45 is not value. Lens only if the price drifts to 2.65+.

Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig, ~19:00)
Lean: Galatasaray, no price. Market about 1.25–1.29, draw about 5.50–6.50, Kasımpaşa about 9.00–11.00. Over 2.5 about 1.40.
Estimated probability: Galatasaray ~72–76%.
Minimum odds for value: Galatasaray ≥ 1.38. At 1.25 there is no value.

PSV vs Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
Market about 1.25. Models near 75–77%.
Minimum odds for value: PSV ≥ 1.35. No value at 1.25.

Braga vs Sporting (Primeira Liga, ~19:15)
Lean: Sporting slight. Market about Sporting 2.10, Braga 3.25, draw 3.40.
Estimated probabilities: Sporting ~48–52%, draw ~26%, Braga ~24%. Over 2.5 ~55%.
Minimum odds for value: Sporting ≥ 2.00; Over 2.5 ≥ 1.85.
Sporting at 2.10 is the only headline 1X2 that is near the value line. Small edge only if the price holds.

Other Friday games (thinner edges)

Match	Lean	Min odds for value
Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga)	Close / Under	Under 2.5 ≥ 1.85
Heidenheim vs Kaiserslautern (2. Bundesliga)	Home slight	Home ≥ 2.10
Avellino vs Sampdoria (Serie B)	Home slight	Home ≥ 2.20
Sutton vs Boreham Wood (National League)	Boreham slight / draw	Away ≥ 2.00; draw ≥ 3.60
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento (Argentina)	Toss-up	Either side ≥ 2.80
Gimnasia vs Atlético Tucumán	Gimnasia	Home ≥ 2.10
Moreirense vs Gil Vicente	Away slight	Gil Vicente ≥ 2.40

Practical shortlist

1. Sporting to win at Braga only if still ≥ 2.05.
2. Málaga–Espanyol Under 2.5 only if ≥ 1.85.
3. Skip Dortmund, West Ham, Galatasaray and PSV at current short prices. Winning favourites are not the same as value bets.
4. Prefer singles. Friday lines move with team news.

These are estimates from form, published models and listed prices, not guarantees. Odds move; check lineups before kick-off. Stake small.