UEFA Nations League (main card, ~16:00–18:45 UTC) Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein (16:00) Lean: Azerbaijan, controlled win, not a goal-fest. Est. probs: home ~84–86%, draw ~11–12%, away ~4%. Under 2.5 ~50–55%. Market: home ~1.12–1.16. Min odds for value: Azerbaijan ≥ 1.20. At ~1.12 there is no value. Under 2.5 only if ≥ 1.90. Germany vs Serbia (18:45)Lean:…