UEFA Nations League (main card, ~16:00–18:45 UTC)

Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein (16:00)
Lean: Azerbaijan, controlled win, not a goal-fest.
Est. probs: home ~84–86%, draw ~11–12%, away ~4%. Under 2.5 ~50–55%.
Market: home ~1.12–1.16.
Min odds for value: Azerbaijan ≥ 1.20. At ~1.12 there is no value. Under 2.5 only if ≥ 1.90.

Germany vs Serbia (18:45)
Lean: Germany.
Est. probs: Germany ~78–81%, draw ~13–14%, Serbia ~6–8%. Over 2.5 ~50–55%.
Market: Germany ~1.20–1.23, draw ~6.00–6.50, Serbia ~11–15.
Min odds for value: Germany ≥ 1.28. At 1.22 there is no edge. Over 2.5 only if ≥ 1.95. Skip the short favourite.

Wales vs Norway (18:45)
Lean: Norway. Wales lost both Nations League games without scoring; Norway still carry Haaland.
Est. probs: Wales ~13–16%, draw ~19–21%, Norway ~64–68%. Over 2.5 ~55–58%.
Market: Norway ~1.40–1.49, Wales ~6.25–7.10, Over 2.5 often ~1.75.
Min odds for value: Norway ≥ 1.55. At 1.44–1.49 this is fair-to-slightly short, not a clear value bet. Over 2.5 ≥ 1.80 would be the cleaner angle.

Denmark vs Portugal (18:45)
Lean: Portugal, goals possible. Portugal opened with two wins; Denmark mixed.
Est. probs: Denmark ~26–28%, draw ~26%, Portugal ~47–48%. Over 2.5 ~51–58%, BTTS ~58%.
Market: Portugal ~2.00–2.08, Denmark ~3.40–3.70, draw ~3.40–3.80.
Min odds for value: Portugal ≥ 2.15. At exactly 2.00 there is little edge. Over 2.5 ≥ 1.85 or BTTS ≥ 1.80 is the better look if those prices hold.

Greece vs Netherlands (18:45)
Lean: Netherlands slight.
Est. probs: Greece ~27–29%, draw ~26–27%, Netherlands ~44–47%.
Market: Netherlands ~2.00–2.10, Greece ~3.40–3.56.
Min odds for value: Netherlands ≥ 2.20. At 2.05 this is about fair. Draw ≥ 3.80 if you want the longer side.

Ireland vs Austria (18:45)
Lean: Austria slight, low-scoring.
Est. probs: Ireland ~25–27%, draw ~29–30%, Austria ~44–45%. Under 2.5 ~52%.
Market: Austria ~2.07–2.10, Ireland ~3.40–3.50, draw ~3.20–3.30.
Min odds for value: Austria ≥ 2.25. No clear value at 2.10. Under 2.5 only if ≥ 1.95.

Israel vs Kosovo (18:45, Hungary)
Lean: Kosovo slight, tight game.
Est. probs: Israel ~30%, draw ~28%, Kosovo ~42%. Under 2.5 ~50–55%.
Market: Kosovo ~2.20–2.32, Israel ~3.10–3.25.
Min odds for value: Kosovo ≥ 2.40. Under 2.5 ≥ 1.90. Borderline at best.

Malta vs Gibraltar (18:45)
Lean: Malta.
Est. probs: Malta ~75–77%.
Market: Malta ~1.25–1.30.
Min odds for value: Malta ≥ 1.35. At 1.25 there is no value.

Women’s Champions League

Man City W vs Real Madrid W (~19:00–20:00)
Lean: City.
Market: City ~1.62–1.73 (about 8/13), draw ~3.90–4.75, Madrid ~3.00–4.60. Over 2.5 ~1.53.
Est. City win ~55–58%.
Min odds for value: City ≥ 1.75. At 1.62–1.67 this is short. Over 2.5 only if ≥ 1.70.

Austria Wien W vs Inter W (~17:45)
Market: Inter ~1.67–1.79.
Est. Inter ~55%.
Min odds for value: Inter ≥ 1.85. Borderline/no value.

PSG W vs OH Leuven W and HB Køge W vs Servette W
PSG ~1.14–1.19, Køge ~1.28–1.34. Both well below break-even. Skip.

Practical shortlist

1. Denmark vs Portugal — Over 2.5 or BTTS if ≥ 1.80–1.85 (cleaner than Portugal at 2.00).
2. Wales vs Norway — Norway only if you can get ≥ 1.55; otherwise pass.
3. Israel vs Kosovo — Kosovo only if ≥ 2.40.
4. Skip Germany, Azerbaijan, Malta, PSG Women and City Women at typical short prices.

Prefer singles. International matches move on rotation and motivation. Stake small. These are estimates, not guarantees. Check lineups and live prices before kick-off. Bet only what you can afford to lose.