Tag: sarmiento
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Headline matches Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen (Bundesliga, 19:30)Lean: Dortmund win, goals likely. Dortmund are unbeaten and at home; models put them around 72–78%. Market is about 1.30–1.36, draw about 5.50, Bremen about 7.00–9.00. Over 2.5 is about 1.40.Estimated probabilities: Dortmund ~74%, draw ~15%, Bremen ~11%. Over 2.5 ~60–65%.Minimum odds for value: Dortmund ≥ 1.40;…
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UEFA Nations League Portugal vs Norway (19:45)Lean: Portugal, open game. Models put Portugal around 52–59%. Market is about 1.62–1.70.Minimum for value: Portugal ≥ 1.75–1.90. At 1.65 there is little or no edge. Over 2.5 is often ~1.44 against a model around 60–63%, so minimum is about 1.60 — also no value at the short price.…