UEFA Nations League (headline)

England vs Spain (19:45, Wembley)
Spain slight favourite after winning the World Cup; England at home keeps it live. Most models: Spain ~38–45%, England ~28–36%, Draw ~23–27%. Goals both ways likely.
Typical market: England ~3.20–3.40, Draw ~3.50–3.60, Spain ~2.20–2.45.
Min odds for value: Spain ≥ 2.40–2.55; Draw ≥ 3.80; England ≥ 3.20; Over 2.5 ≥ 1.95; BTTS Yes ≥ 1.70.
Best look: BTTS Yes or Spain only if you get 2.45+. Don’t take Spain short.

Czechia vs Croatia (19:45)
Croatia lean. Est.: Croatia ~39–46%, Czechia ~27–36%, Draw ~24–27%.
Market: Czechia ~3.40–3.55, Draw ~3.50, Croatia ~2.18–2.25.
Min odds for value: Croatia ≥ 2.30–2.45; Draw ≥ 3.80.
At ~2.20 Croatia is close to fair, not a clear +EV.

Slovenia vs Scotland (14:00 / 15:00)
Even. Slovenia strong at home. Est.: Slovenia ~35–40%, Draw ~28–32%, Scotland ~30–35%.
Market: ~2.60 / 3.20 / 3.00.
Min odds for value: Slovenia ≥ 2.70; Draw ≥ 3.40; Scotland ≥ 3.10.
Best look: Slovenia 1X if ≥ 1.45, or Draw if 3.30+.

North Macedonia vs Switzerland (19:45)
Switzerland heavy favourite. Est. Switzerland ~65–72%.
Market: ~1.40–1.42.
Min odds for value: Switzerland ≥ 1.50. At 1.40 there is little/no value. Prefer Switzerland -1 AH only if the line pays.

San Marino vs Finland (17:00)
Finland ~85–90%. Market ~1.09.
Min odds for value: Finland ≥ 1.18. Skip the 1.09 price; consider Finland -2 or Over 2.5 if priced properly.

Iceland vs Estonia (17:00)
Iceland ~70–76%. Market ~1.25–1.32.
Min odds for value: Iceland ≥ 1.40. Thin at 1.25.

Slovakia vs Moldova (19:45)
Slovakia ~80–84%. Market ~1.18.
Min odds for value: Slovakia ≥ 1.25. Limited edge.

Albania vs Belarus (19:45)
Albania ~55–61%. Market ~1.55–1.59.
Min odds for value: Albania ≥ 1.75.

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg / Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan
Close League C games. Unders often better than 1X2.
Min odds: Under 2.5 ≥ 1.75–1.85 if models sit around 55–60%.

---

England League One (15:00)

Match	Lean	Min odds for value
Plymouth vs Burton	Plymouth	Home ≥ 1.70 (often ~1.57 — thin)
Cambridge vs Wimbledon	Cambridge / tight	Home ≥ 2.00; Draw ≥ 3.60
Bradford vs Barnsley	Bradford	Home ≥ 1.90
Wycombe vs Reading	Wycombe	Home ≥ 1.85
Stockport vs Peterborough	Stockport	Home ≥ 1.45 only if you rate them 70%+
Notts County vs Blackpool	Open	Draw ≥ 3.50; Over 2.5 ≥ 1.85

Plymouth and Stockport are short; value is more likely on BTTS / Over than raw 1X2.

England League Two (15:00, Oldham–Salford 17:30)

Leans from public tips: Bristol Rovers home, York home, Cheltenham/Chesterfield BTTS.
Safer value hunt: Unders or BTTS rather than 1.50 favourites.
Min odds examples: Home favourites only if ≥ 1.80; BTTS Yes ≥ 1.70; Under 2.5 ≥ 1.85.

---

Later / other

• USA vs Peru (friendly, ~21:30): USA favourite. Value only if USA ≥ ~1.55 or Over 2.5 is long.
• MLS (evening US time): high-scoring league — Over 2.5 often needs ≥ 1.75 to be value.
• Liga MX (Cruz Azul–Toluca etc.): shop; don’t take sub-1.50 favs.

---

Shortlist if you want a few singles

1. England–Spain BTTS Yes if ≥ 1.70
2. Slovenia 1X vs Scotland if ≥ 1.45
3. Czechia–Croatia Draw if ≥ 3.70
4. Cambridge or Bradford home only if odds hold above the table above
5. Avoid San Marino/Finland, Iceland/Estonia, Slovakia/Moldova at the current short prices

Use singles. International and League One/Two variance is high. Stake 1% or less. Odds move — check lineups and live prices before kick-off. Gamble only what you can afford to lose.